While the death of Osama bin Laden marks an important victory for U.S. anti-terrorism efforts and for its intelligence community, America should brace itself for a swift and violent reaction from al-Qaeda.
That is what terrorism expert Douglas Macdonald, an associate professor of political science, said this morning after digesting the early news reports about the U.S. strike against the mastermind of the 9/11 attacks.
“I believe al-Qaeda will try to react soon and in a spectacular way,” he said.
Macdonald, who teaches a Silent Warfare course that examines efforts to improve the U.S. intelligence-gathering process since 9/11, said that it seems right now that the United States carried out a well-designed attack on the luxury compound in Pakistan in which bin Laden was hiding.
“It is a very positive step that demonstrates the intelligence capability of our country.”
The main questions for Macdonald are how the Pakistani people will react to the U.S. attack on Pakistani soil, and how much the Pakistani government knew about bin Laden’s whereabouts, considering that he was living comfortably just 35 miles from Islamabad, the nation’s capital.
Macdonald learned of the attack through The New York Times website, and stayed up all night watching the news unfold.
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He said he was surprised by the depths of the reaction to President Obama’s official announcement, which set up celebrations just outside the White House, at Ground Zero in New York City, and on college campusesaround the country.
At Colgate, students studying for finals in the library heard about the announcement and started chanting “U-S-A, U-S-A,” and then began singing the national anthem. Cheering spread across campus and car horns sounded as more and more students became aware of the news.
Macdonald is the author of The New Totalitarians: Social Identity Theory and Radical Islamist Grand Political Strategy.
In the 79-page monograph, he suggests that al-Qaeda represents an elitist movement looking to “steal the identity” of Muslims from around the world to advance its own ideological agenda.
He also has written articles on grand strategy in the global war on terror, intelligence reform in emerging democracies, and American policy in the Third World.
Macdonald has taught as a visiting senior research professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Army War College and been a consultant/lecturer for the Regional Security Education Program at the Naval Postgraduate School.